Bubble Watch: 5 ins and 5 outs
Selection Sunday is 3 weeks from today, and the bracket begins in less than a month. For college basketball fanatics, this is the most exciting time of the year, and as a result, this article marks the first instance of From Downtown’s NCAA tournament coverage. While a fair amount of teams have already made their way into the tournament, plenty of teams are in the uneasy “bubble zone.” Today, From Downtown is here to project 5 “in” teams and 5 “out” teams from the bubble. Using a mix of Bracketology experts Joe Lunardi, Jerry Palm, Ken Pomeroy, and a touch of From Downtown analysis, these insights are carefully cultivated to be as accurate a predictor of the unpredictable as possible. Nonetheless, the list is ordered from least to most controversial, with a few spicy picks towards the end! Stay tuned!
Boise State: In
Boise State made it to From Downtown’s midseason top 25, but faltered after losses to New Mexico and San Diego State. However, the Mustangs have opportunities to right these wrongs down the stretch against both New Mexico and San Diego State at home. Avoiding losses to UNLV and San Jose State might be crucial to keep Head Coach Leon Rice’s team comfortably in the tournament, but currently, Boise State projects to be a 10 seed by both Palm and Lunardi, which lands them the first “in” spot on this list!
Utah State: Out
Jumping from 1 Mountain West team to another, we have a Utah State Aggies team reeling from a few bad losses. Head Coach Ryan Odom’s team jumped out to a 9-0 start, but have since cooled to being a respectable 12-7 in their last 19 games. The Aggies helped their case with a home win against Nevada, but are 3-4 in their last 7 away games, and have a journey to UNLV in their near future. Losing this game could be catastrophic for the Aggies, and then they have to host the aforementioned Boise State before entering a strong Mountain West tournament. The Aggies have a lot of work to do to get in the tournament, and as a result, they cannot be confidently placed in the field of 68 teams.
Texas A&M: In
Due to the waning strength of the SEC, Texas A&M may actually be one of the most slept on teams in America. Head Coach Buzz Williams suffered a string of brutal non-conference losses to Murray State, Colorado, Boise State, Memphis, and Wofford, but have gone 13-2 in conference thus far. The remainder of their schedule is daunting: playing Alabama and Mississippi State are difficult opponents. However, both of these teams have shown recent weakness, and if the Aggies repeat their recent success against Tennessee, they should solidify their case as a tournament team!
Wake Forest: Out
This is a tough one, as Head Coach Steve Forbes has done well with this program through his first 2 years. However, it seems like the Demon Deacons keep falling just short of the prize, and this year looks no different. Wake Forest’s brutal 4 game losing streak in January is a huge knock against them, and their remaining schedule includes 2 games KenPom projects them to lose (at N.C. State and Syracuse). Wake might need an impressive ACC tournament run to make it to the big dance, but with a top heavy ACC team with a few other schools on the bubble (Clemson, Pitt, UNC, and N.C. State), that might be too tall a task for Forbes and recent NIL deal receiver Tyree Appleby to handle in year 2.
Kentucky: In
What an unfortunate story for the Wildcats. A top 5 team in the preseason now sits at a tenuous 18-9, but Head Coach John Calipari likely still brings his team to the NCAA tournament. This team has taken numerous brutal losses over the season, but has a few strong wins as well. Notably, Kentucky swept Tennessee this season, as well as notching home wins against fellow bubble teams Texas A&M and Mississippi State. The Wildcats have incredible talent on their roster, and could even win a tournament game in the right circumstances. Nonetheless, Calipari needs to avoid another bad loss at all costs, as that could be the nail in the coffin that prevents this team from making the NCAA tournament.
Oregon: Out
Head Coach Dana Altman set his team up nicely for success last Saturday, but could not seal the deal. Despite being poised for an upset against a disgruntled UCLA team, Oregon could not close the deal. To make matters worse, Altman’s squad lost in overtime to Washington, making it really difficult for the Ducks to get back to the field. Winning the rest of their regular season is a must, but this team is not favored against Washington State in their next game. Oregon can make it back into consideration, but Altman would need to reignite his strong coaching prowess and light a fire on a currently underperforming team.
As of later Sunday, the Ducks lost again to Washington State, putting them even further out of reach from the tournament!
Iowa: In
Fran McCaffery furiously left the court on Sunday’s loss to Northwestern after getting ejected by the refs, but the Hawkeyes have the ability to remain resilient and avoid letting that loss snowball. Iowa is favored in 3 of their next 4 games, and storming into Assembly Hall at Indiana and delivering a season sweep of the Hoosiers would be enough for Iowa to write their ticket into the pool. If not, avoiding a loss to Wisconsin and a strong performance in the Big Ten tournament would also help the Hawkeyes punch their 3rd straight ticket to the tournament. Trust the Hawkeyes to do at least 1 of these 2 things and comfortably place in the tournament.
UNC: Out
If Kentucky’s situation is unfortunate, UNC’s is a nightmare. An incredibly talented team that retained most of last year’s championship roster is grievously underperforming. UNC recently lost to in-state rival N.C. State in what exacerbated a concern that UNC has not beaten any of their strong opponents. This team is a poultry 2-7 in away games, and lost to both Miami and Pitt at home. Hubert Davis needs to steer the ship back in the right direction to make it into the field, which will be difficult with Duke and Virginia still on the schedule. Expect the Tarheels to barely miss out on this year’s tournament, and become the only #1 preseason team to do so as well.
USC: In
After Arizona and UCLA, it is hard to discern if another Pac-12 team should make the tournament. Fortunately for USC fans, the Trojans look like they could beat the odds and make the tournament. USC is undefeated at home so far, which might help them notch a win against Arizona. Additionally, while they are not favored in either of their upcoming 2 games, they are against a Colorado and Utah team that have both lost 2 of 3, and can plausibly win both of those games! Head Coach Andy Enfield’s team started the season horribly with a loss to his former team in FGCU (Dunk City), but he has done enough since then to put USC back into the tournament!
Wisconsin: Out
The team that has not won 2 games in a row in 2023 is being projected by some analysts to sneak into the tournament, but after their home loss to Rutgers on Saturday, it looks even more unlikely than before. Wisconsin suffered a brutal stretch in which they lost 6 of 7, and they also recently lost to Big Ten bottom-feeder Nebraska. Had superstar Tyler Wahl been at full strength all season, then maybe Greg Gard’s story would be different this year. Unfortunately though, it looks like Gard will have to pull the upset against multiple of Iowa, Michigan, and Purdue to have a good shot at the postseason, which, currently, is not likely enough to put the Badgers into the field.
