Recipe for Disaster: How a Preseason Contender is Missing the Mark
Written on January 10th
Kentucky took its worst loss of the season Tuesday when they were defeated 71-68 by Head Coach Lamont Paris’ South Carolina Gamecocks. The close loss comes at the least opportune moment for the Wildcats, as fans are furious with the lack of production from Kentucky in the Covid era. After missing the tournament in 2021, Kentucky lost to the historic St. Peter’s team in last year’s tournament. Considering they are 1-3 in the SEC, and 10-6 overall, Kentucky is in jeopardy of missing the tournament for the 2nd time in 3 years. But why is this blue blood struggling so much in recent years? Head Coach John Calipari is taking the fall; even with his national championship, Kentucky fans expect consistent, sustained success due to their storied program. It came to a head in Calipari’s loss against South Carolina, as 2 unruly fans were ejected for carrying a sign telling Calipari to consider another job replacing the recently fired Chris Beard. In other words, he was telling Calipari to get out of town.
This begs the question: is Calipari the reason for Kentucky’s failure? The short answer is no, but upon a further inspection, Calipari is surely contributing to Kentucky’s failure. The Wildcats’ team is captained by last year’s National Player of the Year in Oscar Tshiebwe, and superstar freshman Cason Wallace. Tshiebwe is averaging a nice double double with 15.8 points and 13.2 rebounds, while Wallace averages 12.7 points per game while also being one of the best guard defenders in the country. In a vacuum, these are great headliners for a Power 5 team, but looking more closely, these numbers are nowhere close to ideal. Tshiebwe averaged more points and rebounds in 2022 than he has this season. A regression from last year’s National Player of the Year is really shocking. Additionally, while Wallace has had incredible games - such as his losing effort against Michigan State where he recorded 8 steals - he has also had extremely rough lows that hamper his overall stats. In the 78-52 loss against Alabama, Wallace attempted 13 shots, missing 12 of them. The Crimson Tide have been phenomenal this year, losing only to Gonzaga and UConn, but this does not exclude a premiere starter shooting 1/13. Tshiebwe was not much better, scoring a poultry 4 points on only 7 shooting attempts. These numbers were baffling to fans and analysts alike.
Unfortunately for Wildcats fans, the next game delivered a crushing blow to Kentucky’s future prospects as well. Wallace suffered a lower back injury, and was unable to return in what definitely would have been a difference making role. Oscar Tshiebwe and Sahvir Wheeler were not allowed to leave the court, and Calipari made them play all 40 minutes. This is indicative of a shallow, untrusted roster, and Kentucky evidently does not perform that well when their already small roster is additionally hampered by injuries. The Wildcats lost to a South Carolina team with a new head coach that was below .500 until they got this win. That is not the type of team that should be giving KenPom’s preseason #1 team trouble. Unfortunately for Kentucky fans, the next game does not bode well for their future prospects either. They face off against Tennessee in a road game, and the Volunteers are the only team that upended Kansas thus far, and their only losses are to Pac-12 opponents. Simply put, the likely outcome is that the Wildcats drop to 10-7. From there, do they have a chance to dance in March? The future is unclear.
As mentioned earlier, Calipari is not the cause of this collapse, but he is contributing to it in some way. Calipari is not creating good looks for his team to take advantage of, which is costing them in a significant way. This team also lacks discipline. For example, in the game against the now 13-2 Missouri Tigers, Kentucky turned the ball over a staggering 14 times. The Tigers are known for the defense this year, but 14 turnovers is still unacceptable ball handling. Furthermore, according to KenPom, this team ranks 321st in free throws among all D-1 college basketball teams, which is flat out horrible. Simply put, Calipari can be doing a lot better of a job, though he absolutely still deserves a lot of credit for recruiting and policing a roster this talented.
Kentucky fans have a lot to be worried about, but there absolutely is some hope. This team was a preseason national title contender for a reason, and this is one of the most talented starting 5s on paper. Oscar Tshiebwe, Cason Wallace, and Sahvir Wheeler can absolutely lead a stark turnaround in 2023, and the Wildcats would love nothing more than to see Kentucky pull off something similar to what UNC did in 2022. With that being said, Calipari’s roster could also simply not return to form, which could devastate this program. Who knows what happens to Kentucky if Calipari’s team misses the postseason - he will almost assuredly not be leaving due to his buyout exceeding $40,000,000 - but the fans are already becoming impatient with Calipari. One thing is for certain: Kentucky is one of the most important teams to monitor in the next 4 weeks to see if they are legit, fraudulent, or somewhere in between.
