Big East Breakdown
Last year, the Big East was simultaneously ripe with new and old talent. Providence won the Big East regular season for the 1st time in their school’s history, and made the Sweet Sixteen for the 1st time in the 21st century as well. However, the most successful team last year was Villanova. In addition to winning their conference tournament, Jay Wright led this team to the Final Four in his final year as the Wildcats’ head coach. In fact, Villanova, Butler, and Marquette - somewhat considered the old guard of the Big East - are now all experiencing new beginnings. The league is full of intrigue, and From Downtown has the the top 5 storylines heading into the season!
**Note! This article is being written on 11/08/22, meaning the preseason KenPom ratings were updated with the basketball games played on 11/07. Preseason KenPom rankings are now only available when searching through their archives. As a result, if one were to cross-reference the displayed KenPom metrics here with the current metrics, there would be some discrepancy. Consider this to nonetheless be as if it were still the preseason, and, naturally, From Downtown will mention any significant occurrences that have happened since the season began for this and subsequent conference previews!
5) Hoyas, Blue Devils Look to Emerge
Among the bottom of both analysts’ and KenPom’s ranking of the Big East lie the Georgetown Hoyas and the DePaul Blue Demons (notably, Butler ranks lower than both these teams on KenPom). Nonetheless, both teams have experienced notable hardship in recent years. Aside from an incredible Big East tournament run, Patrick Ewing’s head coaching stint has left fans unsure of the future. Meanwhile, DePaul has the biggest NCAA tournament drought at the Power 5 level, having escaped the NCAA tournament since 2004. It turns out that either team attempting to dispel negative narratives may encounter stormy seas ahead. Ewing’s 26-63 record in the Big East is not sustainable, and a storied program such as Georgetown has a thinning patience even for one of its greatest legends. Meanwhile, Tony Stubblefield looked promising in year 1 as a head coach, but likely needs a few more years to get a tournament-ready team. Nonetheless, the bottom-ranked teams are not to be overlooked. More than other conferences, the Big East is truly a conference where any team has a chance at making the dance, and Georgetown and DePaul will try to prove that entering the season!
4) An Influx of Head Coaches Look to Prove Themselves
The Big East has 4 head coaches starting with new programs this year: Villanova’s Kyle Neptune, Seton Hall’s Shaheen Holloway, Xavier’s Sean Miller, and Butler’s Thad Matta. Neptune is getting a lot of buzz heading into the season. This is because he was responsible for thrusting a desperately lacking Fordham team into relevance in just 1 season as their head coach. Villanova projects as a Top 25 team in the AP Poll, and the rest of the new head coaches cannot claim that same feat. This might give Neptune higher expectations than the other teams in year 1, and it will be interesting to monitor his progress as a head coach. Holloway has similar levels of buzz, however, as he is responsible for the St. Peter’s Elite Eight run last season (one of the most distinct “modern classic” sports moments; they will be making movies about St Peter’s). As for Matta and Miller, both are returning to previous head coaching jobs of theirs. Seton Hall, Xavier, and Butler all have pretty high expectations for their new coaches in year 1, but more likely than not, some of them will be more successful than others.
3) Seton Hall, Providence, Xavier, and St. John’s: Who Wins?
The consensus of the top 3 of this league is relatively set in stone, but the tier after these teams is relatively up for grabs. Last year, the Big East sent 6 teams to the tournament (all of them had single digit seeds), which means that 3 of Seton Hall, Providence, Xavier, and St. John’s will likely make the tournament. As for which 3 these will be, the answer will likely depend on how well they stack up against each other. Xavier seems to be offensively inclined, while Seton Hall and Providence will likely be coached with a defensive inclination. St. John’s, very notably, has the single fastest tempo in Division 1 college basketball. It seems as though the Red Storm might run into trouble against the stronger defenses in Providence and Seton Hall, but will do well against Xavier. Meanwhile, Xavier may be more equipped to handle Providence and Seton Hall’s defenses. This rock-paper-scissors sequel matchup is one of the most intriguing in the sport this year, and it will be interesting to see which of these teams emerge as the best as the season progresses.
2) Villanova Loses Jay Wright
Jay Wright is one of the most successful college basketball coaches of all time, and definitely the most successful coach of the past decade (missing just 1 tournament appearance, and having 2 NCAA tournament championships under his belt). However, his retirement announcement was rather shocking. Wright’s legacy is extraordinarily impressive, and Villanova will look to avoid having a similar drought in between their last 2 great coaches (Rollie Massimino led the Wildcats to a championship in 1985). How this will impact the sport as a whole is still uncertain, but it will absolutely impact this team. Now that Wright’s dominance has come to an end, the seat at the top of the Big East is vacant. Villanova should aspire to reclaim that throne themselves, but other teams will absolutely look to make their case as the new kings of the conference in 2023.
1) Teams Competing for the Top Spot
Creighton, Villanova, and UConn once again find themselves at the top of the Preseason AP Poll for the Big East (UConn was an honorable mention). Creighton was ranked the highest it ever has been in history, at a staggering 9th in the country. KenPom is less forgiving of Creighton, however, and ranks both the Wildcats and Huskies above them. The Creighton Bluejays will look to dispel the analytics and win the Big East regular season and/or tournament for the first time ever. However, the Wildcats, Huskies, and middle of the pack will not let that happen so easily. Creighton is being led by Ryan Kalkbrenner, while UConn is being led by superstar center Adama Sanogo. Meanwhile, Villanova will hope to maintain their strong fundamentals with their ensemble returning cast and new head coach. The conference is really up for grabs, which will make for entertaining Big East basketball when conference play rolls around in the coming months!
Of course, no conference preview would be complete without a ranking of the teams, and this conference is home to From Downtown’s hottest takes!
1: UConn
Yes, it turns out that not Creighton or Villanova, but UConn takes the top spot in the Big East. This is the only conference where a team not projected to win by KenPom is ranked #1 in From Downtown ranking, and the primary reason for this is Adama Sanogo. Sanogo was monstrous last season, and should look to command an even greater share of UConn’s scoring in 2023 (he notably scored 19 points in 19 minutes in UConn’s home opener yesterday). Sanogo is a strong, terribly underappreciated contender for Big East player of the year, and should hope to lead the Huskies to great success this year. Additionally, Hurley has proven his consistency as a coach, and while he has continuously struggled in the NCAA Tournament, he has the team and confidence to overcome this narrative this year. Sanogo will be joined by outstanding shot creator Hassan Diarra, block monster Donovan Clingan, and fellow paint scorer Alex Karaban to create a formidable, vastly underrated team capable of great things in 2023!
2: Creighton
Make no mistake, Creighton is not ranked below UConn because of any negative on them. They were slightly outranked by UConn, but are nonetheless a very strong team heading into 2022. The talent on this roster is simply enormous. Two Ryans - Ryan Kalkbrenner and Ryan Nembhard - return from last season’s squad. Both were very talented on a Creighton team that made the tournament in 2022, and Kalkbrenner was given high praise at the Big East media day in mid October. The Bluejays managed to bring in Baylor Scheierman from South Dakota State. Scheierman is one of the most unique players in the sport. He simultaneously shot 47% from the 3-point line and rebounded the ball exceptionally well for a guard in his previous seasons. Scheierman is being overlooked, and the rest of the roster is very talented as well. Expect this team to be incredibly strong this season, and they absolutely could win the Big East.
3: Villanova
Unlike Creighton, Villanova is below UConn in part due to some negatives counting against them. Although this team is very strong, they seem to lack a standout player like the other 2 teams above them have. Caleb Daniels looked very strong in the season opener, but has some injury concerns. Nonetheless, he should be supplemented by a great supporting cast, with names such as Eric Dixon, Brandon Slater, and Chris Aricidianoco being the most notable. Head coach Kyle Neptune should be very strong, but he will likely not live up to the gargantuan expectations of a team who was lucky enough to be coached by Jay Wright for 20 years. Villanova should make the tournament, and have the potential to go further beyond that. However, a few question marks keep them at 3rd place.
4: Providence
At the top of the next tier, Ed Cooley’s Providence team should look to continue their hot streak from last season. For reference, Providence made it to the Sweet Sixteen before losing to the eventual tournament champion Kansas in a close game. Imagine what the Friars could have done had they not met the Jayhawks earlier. Luckily for Providence, Jared Bynum returns to this team, and should look to lead them into the season. Bynum was particularly dynamic last season, but improvements to his composure could help Providence win some close, winnable games. Providence has an excellent incoming group of guys. Jayden Pierre is commonly referred to as one of the nicest guys in college hoops, and his on the floor skills will have the Friars thinking he is nice there as well! Similarly, Kentucky transfer Bryce Hopkins brings some much needed athleticism to this team, and Clifton Moore from La Salle brings some much needed size. Expect the Friars to be stronger than projected in 2023!
5: Seton Hall
Head coach Shaheen Holloway is undoubtedly the story for Seton Hall entering this season. Holloway is responsible for one of the great feats in sports history: bringing a 15 seed to the Elite Eight. If he maintains top form for the Pirates, then Seton Hall should be an excellent team for years to come! Holloway conducted excellent recruiting, and brings in KC Ndefo (from St. Peter’s), Femi Odukale, and Al-Amir Dales. A host of freshmen will join these transfers to give the Pirates a relatively new squad. However, the veteran members of Seton Hall leave a bit to be desired. None of the top 5 scorers return, which is concerning. Hopefully, Holloway can coach this ragtag team to the tournament in his first year at the Power 5 level.
6: Xavier
Xavier is being rated extraordinarily highly by a few analysts. Additionally, they got voted 2nd in Big East media day voting, which is heavily overrating a team with a few notable weaknesses. Nonetheless, the Musketeers should hope to be a NCAA tournament contender heading into the season. Unlike Seton Hall, Xavier is primarily composed of veteran players. Colby Jackson is the standout, but other notable players such as Jack Nunge and Zach Freemantle are coming back to Xavier as well. First year head coach Sean Miller was formerly with the Xavier staff, and is beloved by the fanbases after leading them to back to back Sweet Sixteen appearances in 2008 and 2009. Souley Boum is another notable name on this team, and he had a great 1st game where he recorded 23 points and 5 steals. Unfortunately for Xavier, it just seems like the talent just does not line up with other Big East teams. Nunge, Freemantle, and Jackson all were double digit scorers last season, but they did not have tremendously impressive numbers. This will likely be a basketball team centered around team performance, but they may run into trouble compared to other teams in the Big East as a result. Nonetheless, the expectation is still for Xavier to make the dance in Miller’s first year back at the helm.
7: St. John’s
The Red Storm is the fastest team in basketball. They rank #1 in KenPom’s tempo metric, which is no small feat considering they beat out 362 other teams. However, unfortunately for St. John’s, they might fall just short of the NCAA tournament. St. John’s will center their team around David Jones, Andre Curbelo, and Posh Alexander. Jones and Curbelo both transferred in from DePaul and Illinois respectively. Curbelo was a notable piece on Illinois’ 2021 team, but frustrated Illini fans last season. Fans of the Johnnies will have to hope that he returns to form for them this season. In addition, St. John’s has not been to the dance since 2015, and head coach Mike Anderson is just 9 games above .500 thus far. Anderson has proven his mettle as a head coach with some gritty coaching, but he has yet to take that next step required of most coaches around his level. This season would logically be the season where he makes the jump, but on paper, this speedy time might just miss out on that opportunity. They are nonetheless in the mix for the NCAA tournament, and perhaps even more, depending on how good their big 3 players Curbelo can be for them.
8: Marquette
Marquette was a tournament team last year, and they lost to the eventual tournament runner up in North Carolina. On paper, that was a successful season for Shaka Smart, but he loses a lot more than he adds in this season. Marquette added no notable transfers, but a neat freshman guard duo in Sean Jones and Chase Ross. Jones is notable for being 5’10” and having incredible ball handling skills. As for returning players, look for Oso Ighodaro and Olivier-Maxence Prosper to carry the scoring load for the team (it looks unlikely that the freshmen will start for Marquette this year). Smart is a great coach, so it is to be expected that the players he is cultivating from the ground up will translate well to their starting positions. Nonetheless, the team has to pan out for Marquette to be a tournament team, whereas other teams have tournament ready teams on day 1. Albeit small, the Golden Eagles have a chance to repeat last year’s tournament appearance in 2023.
9: DePaul
The Blue Demons looked promising by DePaul standards under Tony Stubblefield, but DePaul standards are alarmingly low when compared to other schools in the Power 5. Nonetheless, they finished just 1 game below .500, and Stubblefield will look to push the envelope of DePaul’s potential in year 2. Umoja Gibson is transferring in from Oklahoma, and he will look to be a great defender and shot creator for the team. Javan Johnson looked legendary in their home opener against Loyola Maryland, notching a double double! He could be a sleeper pick for Big East honors this year, but the rest of the team is lagging behind these 2 players. DePaul might crack .500, but much more might be unrealistic for a team attempting to escape a 21st century history of irrelevance.
10: Georgetown
Georgetown won for the 1st time in 2022 today, and Patrick Ewing notched the 1st win in the belt of a season he will hope to be career saving. However, the Hoyas need to cover a lot of ground in order to get out of the bottom of the barrel in the Big East. As for the weapons Georgetown will use throughout the season, Akok Akok transferred in from UConn, and Qudus Wahab transferred back to his original college to play for the Hoyas once more. LSU’s Brandon Murray and Bradley Ezewiro round out the #4 overall transfer class in the country. Georgetown should be a lot better than last season, but they will need to be to maintain the Ewing era. Nonetheless, have confidence in the Hoyas to have the potential to raise some eyebrows in 2023.
11: Butler
Analysts are flocking to Thad Matta’s team in year 1 of his return tenure for Butler, but statistics are strongly against this team. KenPom positions them quite a few spots behind Georgetown to start the season, and for good reason. While Matta is an exceptional head coach (bar his health issue, he would have likely kept Ohio State in top shape for many more years to come), the surrounding talent is questionable. Manny Bates transfers in from NC State (making room for Terquavion Smith to make a big splash), and Chuck Harris returns as well. However, Butler is simply worse than the other teams in terms of the talent they bring in. Matta squeezing wine from water is not too unlikely, but expect Butler to round out the bottom of the Big East.
Stay tuned for the SEC Shakedown coming this Sunday, and then for more articles on the regular season after that!
