ACC Analysis
The ACC looked washed up in the 2022 regular season. UNC had an incredibly rocky start to the season, Duke looked beatable, Virginia and Florida State had rare off years, and teams in the tournament mix had heartbreaking losses in crucial moments. However, between Notre Dame’s upset over Alabama, Miami’s surprise run to the Elite Eight, Duke’s (debatably) proper send off for Coach K, and UNC’s incredible run to the championship game, it is safe to say that the ACC was the best clearly league in the tournament. Whether or not that will continue is up for interpretation, but the ACC looks to be a bit stronger on the whole compared to last season. Considering last season’s success, the ACC could see tremendous competition in the 22-23 season, and From Downtown is here to bring you the top 5 storylines as said season begins!
5: Miami is Incredible
As a student of such an illustrious school, it is my duty to provide a proper description of its excellence for my readers. However, I will do my best to be unbiased. Whether a fan of the team or not, few can dispute that this team will comfortably make the tournament, and has hopes of reaching even further past that point. The key headliners here are a pair of guards in veteran Isaiah Wong and Kansas State transfer Nigel Pack. Pack was the most highly rated guard in the transfer portal, and the Hurricanes landed his support with the highly controversial public NIL deal with local businessman John Ruiz. Pack is currently the most prominent CBB athlete with a tangible salary to his name, which is a big deal for the future of the sport. Additionally, he is an incredibly talented scorer who averaged north of 17 points for a bad Kansas State team last season. Other notable people include Arkansas State transfer Norchad Omier, veteran Jordan Miller, and head coach Jim Larrañaga, who coached the program to the best season in Hurricanes history. The Hurricanes are well on track to replicate last year’s successes, and considering NIL’s growing presence in the sport, they are quickly becoming a big powerhouse in the sport. Ultimately, however, they are still not at the level of dominance the top brass of the ACC is at, and whether or not they can reach this height is a storyline to consider in the coming years.
4: Louisville Attempts to Return to Prominence
Considering their national championship status in 2013 was revoked, one cannot help but say that the 21st century has been a disappointment for the Cardinals. However, there is new hope for this team. Kenny Payne, while wet behind the ears, was a key member in Kentucky’s 2012 and 2014 runs to the top, and also helped turn around a backwards Knicks program (to some extent, at least). Louisville will attempt to return to their status as a premiere program in both the ACC and the country. With that being said, this year is likely not the year that Payne gets it done. In terms of both internal and external factors, Louisville is in unfortunate waters. Internally, they have one of the worst rosters in the ACC from a talent perspective. They brought a few notable freshmen in Kamari Lands and Devin Ree, but they both play small forward. Both also would be on the smaller side of power forwards, but lack the necessary shooting talent to transition to the guard position. This signing decision was therefore questionable, but the talent they bring back from last season’s 11th place ACC team is even more bleak, and the only notable player returning is Eli Ellis. Also, this is going to be one of the most competitive ACCs in recent memory, with a lot of teams vying for the 2-3 at large spots behind UNC, Duke, Virginia, and Miami. Payne seems to have a longer term project on his hands, but Louisville fans should be more excited than the dismal Chris Mack tenure that preceded him.
3: Some Coaches may Need a Miracle to Ensure Job Security
While the Pac-12 is the most volatile region in terms of coaching security, the ACC comes in at a close second. Notably, NC State’s Kevin Keatts, Pitt’s Jeff Capel III, and Georgia Tech’s Josh Pastner have all underperformed in their positions they inherited in the latter half of the 2010s. Capel has evaded the tournament thus far, and Keatts and Pastner have made only the tournament a single time. Unfortunately for these coaches, KenPom has them comprising 3 of the bottom 4 ACC teams (with only the aforementioned Louisville breaking up this trio). Unlike the Pac-12, where the coaches in question have teams with reasonable tournament hopes, none of these teams project anywhere close to the tournament by KenPom or analysts. In particular, Keatts seems to be in particularly hot water, as the NC State squad is coming off a dead last finish in the ACC. Additionally, Pitt’s best player - Dior Johnson - is battling legal allegations of aggravated assault, and his future is very unclear. Pastner might be safe if he can outperform expectations, as his team is projected last in the ACC by a significant margin. Notably, Notre Dame’s Mike Brey was in hot water last season, but after their strong tournament run, the Fighting Irish regained confidence in their longtime coach. Clemson’s Brad Brownell has had a give and take relationship with Tigers fans, but he should still be safe even if Clemson performs poorly this season. As for the prior 3 coaches, this year truly is make or break for their careers, and the added pressure may lead to some great performances from this underdog teams!
2: The Middle of the Pack is Extremely Competitive
Virginia Tech. Notre Dame. Syracuse. Clemson. Florida State. Boston College. Wake Forest. What do these 7 schools have in common? They are all well within striking distance of the dance. These 7 teams are likely competing for 2-3 tournament spots, which might make the middle of this league a slaughterfest. In fact, despite Miami and Virginia having a leg up on these teams, they may not be immune to a swath of strong teams looking to make an upset happen. Aside from UNC and Duke being at the top of the pack, this league is likely the hardest of the Power 5 to predict. Notre Dame notably brought in 5 star freshman J.J. Starling, Steve Forbes and Earl Grant has been doing incredible things in the first few years at their programs (Wake Forest and Boston College respectively), and Virginia Tech caught fire at the right moment last year and will look to continue their postseason streak. All of these teams have intrigue, and as a result, the ACC will be very exciting to watch in the coming season.
1: The Titans Appear Once More
While teams such as Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, and Miami have enjoyed success in recent years, it pales in comparison to the prolonged successes of Duke, UNC, and Virginia. However, while all of these teams are currently projected in the top 20 of both the Preseason AP Poll and KenPom, they also all are experiencing transitions. Hubert Davis, the head coach of UNC, experienced one of the greatest head coach debuts of all time when he clawed his way to 5 tournament victories. Nonetheless, he had some growing pains in year 1, and will look to gain some consistency in year 2 with a dominant team of returning veterans. Duke, meanwhile, finally ended the reign of Coach K at the end of last year’s Final Four. Jon Scheyer will look to take over one of the strongest programs in the nation, but the expectations scrape the sky. Living up to arguably the best coach in CBB history is no joke, and Jon Scheyer will almost certainly experience hate no matter how well he does. Finally, Tony Bennett has experienced all of the ups and downs he could ask for as the head coach at Virginia. He gave up the biggest upset in NCAA tournament history (by seed), but then won the tournament the next year with a slew of exciting games. Since then, he got knocked out in another gruesome upset in 2021 before missing the tournament altogether in 2022. Tony Bennett is one of the best coaches in the game at current - bringin the Cavaliers their first championship proves that - but he looks to return to form in 2022. Expect the Cavaliers, Blue Devils, and Tar Heels to all make a big splash in 2023.
As for the rankings of the teams…
UNC
UNC is returning 4 starters from last year’s tournament finalist, which is unheard of to date. Of the returning players, 2 of them arguably rank in the top 10 players in the country this season. Armando Bacot was a monster in the tournament, and is a contender for player of the year in the sport. Caleb Love is also an incredible player, as are RJ Davis and Leaky Black. Hubert Davis proved his mettle as a head coach by being extraordinarily successful in his first season, and only Tommy Lloyd has a case for having a better inaugural season. UNC genuinely has hopes to make the title game yet again, and they should absolutely be the favorite to win the ACC.
2. Duke
Fade Duke a bit heading into the season, but not by much. The talent this roster is bringing in is simply enormous. Duke brings in the 1st, 2nd, and 4th ranked freshmen, as well as the 22nd for a whopping 4 freshmen with a 5 star rank (they also bring in one of the best 4 stars in Tyrese Proctor). That is unparalleled in the sport, and gives Duke by far the strongest freshman class. Among these people, Dereck Lively II and Dariq Whitehead are the biggest standouts. Lively should be a 7’1” phenom, while Whitehead should be fantastic as well. While they did bring in 2 separate centers, they should be able to rotate these players very well alongside veteran Jeremy Roach. Unfortunately, the big question mark with this roster is the coach Jon Scheyer. Scheyer has immense pressure to continue Duke’s tradition of success, and he also has no experience as a head coach. Granted, he had the opportunity to spend 9 years under the tutelage of Coach K, but sometimes things that look like they should work out have a habit of falling apart. Expect Duke to struggle in the early portion of the season, but to nonetheless be national contenders by the end of the season once Scheyer and the freshmen find their footing.
3. Virginia
Virginia head coach Tony Bennett is one of the greatest defensive minds to ever touch the sport (fun fact: he once held an opposing school to a mere 26 points in a 40 minute game in a bout against Maine in 2019). KenPom seems to agree, giving this team 4th overall in defensive efficiency. That was enough to give them the 5th overall KenPom spot, which ranks them above UNC, Duke, and plenty of other competent teams. Put bluntly, KenPom is vastly overestimating this team’s skills. Virginia is much more likely to end up where the AP poll has them ranked, which will still leave them as a team contending for great success come this March. Virginia is led by the aptly named Jayden Gardner, who rebounds the ball excellently and scores with skill as well. The other top 3 scorers are returning as well, and Kihei Clark in particular is notable for being an excellent enabler on offense. This team is enrolling two separate freshmen named Isaac, with power forward Isaac Traudt and combo guard Isaac McKneely. The Cavaliers should be really good, just not as good as KenPom has them ranked entering the season.
4. Miami
As the students in Coral Gables bask in their illustrious glory, so too does the basketball team bask in its incredible skill and talent. As mentioned earlier, Miami landed 2 top transfers in Nijel Pack and Norchad Omier. Miami also brings back Isaiah Wong, who is a dark horse to win ACC player of the year (if, somehow, UNC underperforms). This team should be really strong, and Larrañaga has also proven his mettle as a coach, as he brought the Hurricanes - a team ranked 12th in the ACC to start the season - to the Elite Eight. Be on the lookout for the Hurricanes this year!
5. Wake Forest
Aside from Cal, Wake Forest might be From Downtown’s pick for the most underrated team in the Power 5. For a reason to trust the Demon Deacons, look no further than the impressive work of Steve Forbes. If not for an ugly loss to Boston College, there was a strong chance this team could have made the NCAA tournament and beyond last year. The Demon Deacons are returning just a bit of talent, but they make up for it with an ensemble cast of transfers and freshmen. Most notably - and the biggest reason why KenPom and analysts are underrating the Deacs - is Bobi Klintman. Should Forbes start him, Klintman should transfer his skills from Sweden over very nicely to the Winston-Salem squad. Also joining the team is Florida guard Tyree Appleby, who should grow into a premiere player once he has the lion’s share of the team’s possessions. Considering Forbes managed to make Jake LaRavia an NBA player from a former Indiana State transfer, his ability to squeeze water from the rock should not be underestimated. Nonetheless, the lack of a star could be troubling in such a star-studded conference. Expect the Demon Deacons to once again be solid heading into 22-23!
6. Notre Dame
Notre Dame’s basketball program usually plays second fiddle to football, though considering their success in last year’s tournament compared to their grievous underperformance in football this year, that may not be the case this year. The Fighting Irish landed a tremendous freshman in J.J. Starling. Starling is the only 5 star freshman in the conference not playing for Duke, and that should add starpower to head coach Mike Brey’s roster heading into the season. Notably, Brey has been the head coach for 20 years, and this is a feat few other Power 5 coaches can claim. However, Brey was experiencing pretty rough shape until last season, and he is absolutely capable of regressing back to his previously subpar form. Hopefully for Irish fans, this team should once again be very solid!
7. Virginia Tech
The Hokies managed to win the ACC tournament last year, playing spoiler to Duke in what would have been a great sendoff to coach K. However, they got beaten pretty badly by the Longhorns in round 1 of the tournament, and looked like they did not belong in the postseason. Since they secured that automatic bid, the Hokies lost Keve Aluma, who was most of the reason they were so good last year. In an attempt to replace him, they brought in centers Grant Basile from Wright State and Mylyjael Poteat from Rice. Similarly, Rodney Rice joins this squad as a 4 star freshman, and Justin Mutts returns as the head veteran on this roster. This team is overrated by KenPom by a pretty significant degree. There simply is not enough here to justify putting a team that finished the season 23-13 last year in the top 25, especially considering they likely bring a worse roster to 2023 than they did to 2022. Nonetheless, Mike Young has a squad capable of making the tournament yet again!
8. Florida State
The Seminoles are being projected at wildly different spots depending on if one looks at KenPom or analyst projections. Analysts have them upwards of 5th in the ACC, while KenPom has them 9th. The truth is likely somewhere in between. The Seminoles ended their postseason streak with a pretty awful team last season, but they have a shot at making the tournament again nonetheless. This team will be predominantly led by returning players Cameron Mills and Matthew Cleveland. With that being said, Florida State also brings in a fair amount of strong recruits and transfers. Spain’s Baba Miller projects as a top 50 recruit, while Darin Green from UCF and Jaylan Gainey from Brown transfer in as well. The main problem with this team is defensive efficiency. None of these players boast particularly strong defensive metrics, and in fact, KenPom has them 9th in the ACC as a result of their shoddy defense. Expect Hamilton - by far the strongest basketball coach in FSU history - to nonetheless put this team in a position to make a postseason push.
9. Clemson
This team has a few question marks heading into the season. Brad Brownell has been an inconsistent coach in his time with the Tigers thus far. To make matters worse, his roster seems a bit weak compared to other teams. Nonetheless, the Tigers still have hope for a postseason bid if they get their act together as a roster, and if Brownell has one of his “hot” seasons rather than a cold season. The Tigers are bringing in two freshmen named Chauncey, with forward Chauncey Williams and guard Chauncey Gibson entering the fray. They also return PJ Hall, last year’s best player, although a surgery recovery may limit him in the early parts of the season. This team is pretty physical; they are on the slower side tempo wise, and they project to be balanced in terms of offense and defense at KenPom. The Tigers will have a hard time landing the tournament, but do not rule out the possibility of this team being strong.
10. Boston College
Last year marked Earl Grant’s first year with the Eagles, and he exceeded expectations with a surprise ACC tournament run and not finishing dead last in the conference. However, that did not mean Boston College had anything remotely close to a successful season, as they were nowhere close to national relevance. Grant likely cannot make it to that stage in Year 2, but should look to see improvement as he turns this program around. The Eagles bring back Makai Ashton-Langford and Jaeden Zackery, 2 of the team’s top 3 scorers. Prince Aligbe is the team’s most notable freshmen entering the team, and an ensemble cast of other players and Cincinnati transfer Mason Madsen enter as well. This team unfortunately cannot keep up with the high end talent the league has to offer, but Grant coached a competent team last season, and has potential to once again exceed expectations.
11. Syracuse
Jim Boeheim has been coaching basketball for Syracuse since before the moon landing. To put that into perspective, he has been on Syracuse’s staff since before some of the athletes he is coaching today’s parents were born. Boeheim is entering the twilight years of his coaching career, and his past few seasons have been inconsistent at best and straight up poor at worst. Syracuse brings in Judah Mintz, barely not a top 50 recruit, but the returning talent to this team is very unappealing. Mintz has bigger shoes to fill than most incoming freshmen, and if he does not step up to the plate, the Orange could end up underperforming their already low expectations. Expect to fade the Orange a bit this year.
12. Louisville
Louisville lost their exhibition match to Lenoir-Rhyne by double digits. That is a horrible start to a season. In fact, Kenny Payne led Louisville to one of the worst starts to the season in the Power 5. Considering the malaise surrounding this organization with the IARP results being handed down earlier this week, Louisville projects to have a sad season. However, the talent here is stronger than the other teams at the bottom of the barrel. Eli Ellis was solid for the team last season, and the other players here show promise as role players on the team. Louisville has no hopes of the postseason, but they should see some excitement in Payne’s first season.
13. NC State
Terquavion Smith is likely one of the best players in the entire ACC. He projects as a lottery pick, and should be dominant against any team in this league. However, he is legitimately the only notable player on this team. Head coach Kevin Keatts is on the hot seat, and aside from Smith, he really does not have much to offer the league. As a result, the Wolfpack will be almost entirely reliant on how much Smith will be able to carry them to success. On the off chance that Smith breaks out as a legitimate superstar, this team can exceed expectations. However, poor coaching and lack of surrounding talent will likely be NC State’s undoing this season.
14. Georgia Tech
The Yellow Jackets are struggling under head coach Josh Pastner, who has never received an at large bid in the NCAA tournament. In fact, Georgia Tech has an abysmal freshman class ranked at a heinously bad 160th in the nation. Pastner led this team to the tournament in 2021 with a stellar run in the ACC tournament, but he has been underperforming as a coach aside from that. Perhaps another strong campaign can save his job, but if it does not happen, Pastner’s days may be limited at Georgia Tech. Expect this to be the end of an era either way, as Georgia Tech will likely need a multiple year rebuild to return to national prominence.
15. Pitt
Pitt’s head coach Jeff Capel III has yet to finish within the top 10 of the ACC. Additionally, their best player is likely not going to play at all this season, as he has been charged with aggravated assault. If Pitt has another disappointing year, the school may not be forgiving to Capel, who has significantly underperformed thus far. Expect the Panthers to finish among the bottom teams of the ACC for a 5th straight year.
Get ready for the remaining Power 5 previews in the coming week. In the meantime, check out Luke Sims’ article on the Minnesota Wild’s Matt Dumba below!
https://zonecoverage.com/2022/wild/why-are-we-blaming-matt-dumba-for-minnesotas-defensive-issues/
