Big 12 Breakdown
In the penultimate year of a Texas and Oklahoma included Big 12, the conference tops the conference rankings for the second straight year. This year, the conference is all about new blood. Half of the big 12 head coaches are coaching in their 1st or 2nd season with their team. However, at the top of the preseason AP poll, the old guard coaches are vying for the regular season title. Keyonte George - a top ranked freshman - joins Baylor this year as head coach Scott Drew quests for a three-peat regular season title. Bill Self, however, hopes to lead Kansas to a second consecutive NCAA tournament victory on the backs of DaJuan Harris, Jalen Wilson, and Texas Tech transfer Kevin McCullar. The conference is ripe with intrigue, so leave it to From Downtown to illustrate the 5 most important takeaways heading into the Big 12 season.
5) Preseason AP Poll Rankings
The AP Poll interestingly ranks Baylor and Kansas together as the teams tied for 5th in the standings. These two tie for the Big 12 top dogs in the rankings, with Texas at 12th, TCU at 14th, and Texas Tech at 25th rounding out teams with a preseason ranking. Across all individual rankings, Baylor and Kansas are ranked neck and neck. Analysts are torn on whether or not Bill Self’s veteran squad matches up to Scott Drew’s team led by a young superstar. However, it is feasible neither of these come away with the lion’s share of the conference. Texas, TCU, and Texas Tech all have reasonable shots to win the conference, and their rankings reflect that. There is no clear favorite to win the Big 12 this year, and it would be wise to bet the field to win over any one particular team.
4) Do the other Big 12 teams have postseason hopes?
The five teams mentioned above would have to significantly underperform to miss the NCAA tournament. However, the Big 12 was a 6-bid conference last year, and the 6th spot for the tournament is quite contentious. Last year, TJ Otzelberger led a fantastic turnaround of a decrepit Iowa State program, leading them to the Sweet Sixteen. This year, Iowa State has their work cut out for them, as they lost their two best players on last season’s squad (Tyrese Hunter transferred to Texas, actually). Oklahoma State, a squad banned from postseason play last year, has postseason aspirations as well, but question marks remain on their scoring potential despite returning the monstrous center Moussa Cisse. Oklahoma lost former Eastern Washington star Tanner Groves, and Porter Moser had trouble keeping his team disciplined in key moments last season. However, big Nevada transfer Grant Sherfield should be able to keep them relevant this year. All three of these teams are ranked in the top 64 in KenPom, but more likely than not, one or maybe two of them will make it to the dance. Keep an eye out for the battle between these three teams as the season progresses, Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State games in particular should be a thriller (expect West Virginia to pull some upsets, but likely fall clearly short of the tournament).
3) How well does Jerome Tang do in year 1 at Kansas State?
Kansas State has been disappointing ever since their shocking elite 8 run in 2018, where they lost to 11 seed Loyola Chicago after nailing 3 straight seed upsets. As a result, they hired former Baylor assistant Jerome Tang to reinvigorate the deflated program. Tang shows lots of promise as a head coach at the power 5 level, but Kansas State is nonetheless braving rough waters in the upcoming season. Kansas State lost Nigel Pack to grade-A institution Miami FL. Analysts have reached the consensus that Kansas State will finish last in the Big 12, but look out for underrated players such as Ismael Massoud to make a big splash in year 1 of Tang’s tenure.
2) Texas vs TCU vs Texas Tech
These three Texas teams have a lot more in common than their similar spots in the AP Poll. Chris Beard and Mark Adams are both coaching in their second year with the program, as Beard recently departed from Tech to coach for the Longhorns. Jamie Dixon at TCU is coaching in his seventh season, but has led his team to the highest preseason ranking in Horned Frogs history after their close loss to Arizona in an overtime thriller (one of the best games of last year’s tournament). Adams coached KenPom’s rank 1 defense, but that ranking has been usurped by Beard in the preseason rankings. In fact, Texas actually overtook Baylor and Kansas in KenPom, and is ranked at a shocking 2nd overall. KenPom and the AP Poll give the edge to Dixon’s Frogs over Adams’ Raiders, but these three teams not only can finish in any order, but give the top two in the conference a run for their money as well. Be on the lookout for matchups between these three Texas teams as the season progresses, as they are sure to be close games with high stakes.
Does Baylor get the three peat, or can Kansas remain a national powerhouse?
Bill Self and Scott Drew are entering their 20th seasons as head coaches for their respective teams, a far cry from the group of new coaches the Big 12 has to offer. Self and Drew are also the two most recent national champions, and a rivalry between these two programs is quickly budding. Baylor is looking for their third straight Big 12 regular season title, and their third straight 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. Meanwhile, the pressure is on Kansas to defend their national championship title, and reclaim their status at the top of the Big 12. Analysts rank these two teams very similarly: they tie for the 5th spot in the AP Poll, and KenPom has Baylor (6th) a mere two spots above Kansas (8th). Make sure to watch these two teams play each other on January 23rd and February 18th, as it could determine who ends up the regular season champion in the Big 12.
Finally, From Downtown has preseason rankings for Big 12, based on analytics, empirical data, and a good old bit of personal bias.
Baylor (5th AP Poll, 6th KenPom)
Expect Scott Drew to coach a squad poised to earn their third straight 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. The Bears maintain possession of LJ Cryer - a great player for the Bears last season in his own right - and pair him with freshman Keyonte George, a bonafide stud and preseason Big 12 player (and freshman) of the year. The Bears may lack a bit on defense compared to the rest of the conference, as they just barely make the top half of the Big 12 in KenPom’s defensive metrics (at 12th place no less; a testament to the strong defenses across the Big 12). Nonetheless, the team clears the field in offense, and looks to be a strong Big 12 championship, final 4, and perhaps even national championship contender.
2. Kansas (5th AP Poll, 8th KenPom)
Make no mistake, Kansas is not ranked at this spot due to a significant regression from last year. Although they lost a great deal from the championship squad - most notably Ochai Agbaji and Remy Martin - Kansas still has a team with high aspirations for the upcoming season. The kingpin of this team is Bill Self himself, as he has continued Kansas’ “blue blood” legacy with two national championships and a whopping 15 Big 12 regular season titles. Self will surround himself with Dajuan Harris and Jalen Wilson, both of whom were contributors to the championship team last season. Additionally, he nabbed a big time transfer in Texas Tech’s Kevin McCullar. These 3 will be the leaders of a campaign aspiring to win the first repeat NCAA tournament victory since 2008.
3. Texas (12 AP Poll, 2nd KenPom)
One of the biggest surprises with the release of KenPom’s preseason rankings the was Texas taking the 2nd overall spot with the top ranked defense. Texas was not projected to be in the top 10 spots by the AP Poll, but perhaps they should have been. Chris Beard gave Longhorns fans a taste of greatness in spurts, but ultimately performed to tournament expectations and bowed out in the second round. Beard has high expectations to deliver a repeat performance of Texas Tech’s 2019 tournament run, where they played eventual winner Virginia in the title game. To help him get there, the Longhorns returned a few key players, but importantly received Iowa State transfer Tyrese Hunter. They also managed to sign two 5 star freshmen in Dillon Mitchell and Arterio Morris. This team is absolutely a dark horse to win the Big 12 title, and potentially more!
4. TCU (14 AP Poll, 16 KenPom)
Jamie Dixon has, based on rankings, his best team yet. In fact, this is the most highly ranked TCU team in their history. The horned Frogs have high expectations, and these expectations are not unwarranted from a team that has a significant shot to pull ahead of the pack in the Big 12. The team is led by Mike Miles, one of the few names close to Keyonte George in the race for Big 12 player of the year. TCU also managed to return their top six scorers from a tournament team last year. One concern with the Horned Frogs is that this team was a nine seed last year, and not much was added, merely maintained. There is concern to fade this team a little bit, but not nearly enough to significantly impact the rankings. TCU should look to have one of their most memorable seasons in a long time during Dixon’s seventh year.
5. Texas Tech (25 AP Poll, 17 KenPom)
Mark Adams coached the number one defense in college basketball last year, and let a game slip from his fingertips against an aging Coach K in their Sweet Sixteen game against Duke. Texas Tech should expect a bit of regression from their team last year, but should also expect to nonetheless be in the mix of the best Big 12 teams. The team is led by [INSERT THE TRANSFERS]. Mark Adams has proven to be a defensive guru, but improvement on the offensive side on the ball is a goal for him to work towards as the Red Raiders head into the season.
6. Iowa State (N/A AP Poll, 62 KenPom)
This is From Downtown’s most controversial take, but in a league dominated by great coaching, none of the new coaches made a bigger splash than TJ Oltzenberger. Oltzenberger brought Iowa State - a devasted basketball program - back into relevance in just one year, and was up there with other first year coaches Tommy Lloyd and Hubert Davis as the best head coach in their first year with the program. Criticisms of Iowa State - a team ranked over 30 spots behind Oklahoma and Oklahoma State - is the lack of talent the team has with the departure of Tyrese Hunter and Izaiah Brockington. However, do not underestimate Oltzenberger to replicate these talents through superior coaching. The Cyclones will continue to make big waves as Oltzenberger attempts to once again overcome the odds in the strongest conference in college basketball.
7. Oklahoma (N/A AP Poll, 28 KenPom)
Porter Moser - yet another second year coach in the Big 12 - failed to make the tournament in his second year. The primary reason for his failure was the lack of discipline on the team. The Sooners were turnover heavy and bad at free throws. They also have the unfortunate circumstance of losing college basketball sensation Tanner Groves, who formerly played at Eastern Washington. Porter Moser will have to do a better job at corralling his talent if he wants to make a tournament push this year. Fortunately, stud Nevada transfer Grant Sherfield should help the team clean up their act. Oklahoma is highly ranked in KenPom this year, and perhaps Moser can prove this team’s mettle in the opening weeks of the season with some key wins.
8. Oklahoma State (N/A AP Poll, 30 KenPom)
Fade the Oklahoma State Cowboys this year. Mike Boynton coaches a great defense, and Moussa Cisse’s great physicality and height helps him be one of the best rim protectors in college basketball. However, the Cowboys were banned from tournament contention last year, and the year before that, the hype was less on the team and more on future NBA 1st overall pick Cade Cunningham. Simply put, this team feels complacent. The Cowboys have been uncreative on offense since the departure of Cunningham (as shown by their statistically low offensive metrics rating in KenPom), and the talent on this team besides Cisse leaves a bit to be desired when compared to other teams in the conference. Make no mistake, this is a legitimate team with tournament possibilities, but the Cowboys may experience a rocky start to conference play while they adjust both their offensive gameplan and mentality to some of the best defenses college basketball has to offer.
9. Kansas State (N/A AP Poll, 77 KenPom)
From Downtown is going against the grain by placing this team above West Virginia. Kansas State loses Nigel Pack - the number 1 recruit in the transfer portal - to the outstanding team at Miami FL. However, what Kansas State has that some other teams in the Big 12 lack is a new identity and a strong desire to succeed. This program is making big changes - the main one being acquiring Jerome Tang at the head coaching position - and the Wildcats landed an interesting recruit in Keyontae Johnson - a former Florida Gator who has not played since 2020 - to hopefully help lead them to national relevance once again alongside returning forward Ismael Massoud. Kansas State making the tournament this year would be a surprise, but expect flashes of greatness from a team strongly attacking the rebuilding process.
10. West Virginia (N/A AP Poll, 73 KenPom)
Bob Huggins’ mettle as a coach is indisputable. However, the team had total system failure in the latter half of 2022. West Virginia’s modern identity is one of losing against opponents they should beat. Most notably, the 2021 season saw the Huggins led team lose to Syracuse in the round of 32, and the 2022 season saw them lose 15 of 17 to end the season. To make matters worse, Huggins is losing a majority of the team that made up last season, and is essentially starting over from scratch. This team is being rated highly primarily because of Huggins’ proven ability as a coach, but the talent simply is not there when compared to the rest of the conference. In addition, as great as Huggins has been, he pales in comparison to future hall of famers Scott Drew and Bill Self as the old guard of the Big 12. This season will demonstrate that, although Huggins is great on his own, West Virginia as a program is lacking in excitement, which will make it difficult to coach his new group of guys towards relevance in the upcoming season. Expect Huggins to pull through and deliver some upsets, but not much more than that.
As the days count down before the season begins, From Downtown is here to bring previews of each major conference in the sport. For true fans of college basketball, From Downtown will be here to provide the latest and greatest in articles and podcasts. Check out our Pac-12 breakdown coming out later this week!
