Pac-12 Preview
The Pac-12 conference shocked the world when UCLA and USC - some of the league’s most profitable brands - announced their departure towards the Big Ten. However, while this recent development will lead towards top heavy sports in the future, it also heightens the stakes for the bigger rivalries in this conference as it heads towards the basketball season. The league is chalk full of hungry teams, and whether it is for the conference championship, a tournament bid, or just a bit more respect, all of these teams are shooting for new heights. However, not all of these teams can find success, meaning that this conference is going to be full of gritty, fierce matchups sure to be great from a spectator perspective. From Downtown has the top 5 storylines for the Pac-12 this season, so make sure to stick around and get the full breakdown on one of college basketball’s most interesting conferences.
5) Is California Being Underrated?
Cal has evaded the NCAA tournament since 2016, and is not a historically fantastic basketball program. Mark Fox’s lukewarm tenure as coach (35-58 across 3 seasons) certainly does not do this team any favors. This team is universally panned by analysts, and would bring up the rear in KenPom if not for Wayne Tinkle’s Oregon State. However, now is the year to buy this sneaky team on the dip. California nabbed two important transfers, one of which is Devin Askew, a former Longhorn. Askew should be able to see an increase in volume, as his metrics have been good throughout college, but he has not been utilized. Being the focal point of an offense will be great for his career, and so will being surrounded with Coppin State transfer guard Dajuan Harris and incoming freshman Grant Newell. This is not the type of team to make the tournament, but Mark Fox has the opportunity to begin building a foundation for a future tournament run. It will be important to monitor how Cal cultivates their incoming talent in the future, and expect them to make a few key upsets later on into the season as their crew has time to mesh and develop.
4) Pressure on many Coaches to Succeed
Arizona State’s Bobby Hurley, Stanford’s Jerod Haase, Washington’s Mike Hopkins, and the aforementioned Cal’s Mark Fox all have questions about their job security heading into the 22-23 season. Hurley and Haase are entering some of their later seasons with disappointing performances throughout their careers. Haase has avoided the tournament thus far, and Hurley has a single win in the first four in 2019. The pair of Mike coaches at Washington and Cal are below .500 with their respective squads since 2019. While question marks for job security usually lead to tense seasons, the fact that over a third of the coaches could be coaching in one of their last seasons with the program leads to a particularly gritty race in the middle of the Pac-12. A few of these teams have potential to make it to the NCAA tournament, and if they really surpass expectations, they could go even further beyond that. However, as likely as a team from this pack is to exceed expectations, there is equal possibility that one team can fail expectations. This could mean a potential firing of a coach, which raises the stakes for an already high-stakes season. Be on the lookout for Oregon State coach and former elite 8 stunner Wayne Tinkle. Tinkle is fresh off of an awful season the year after his incredible tournament run, and although he got a hefty contract extension, if he continues to sorely underperform, he could be in danger as the next few seasons progress.
3) Oregon and USC are Two Sides of the Same Coin
In a league with coaching concerns, Oregon’s Dana Altman and USC’s Andy Enfield are two locks for consistency on a year-to-year basis. In addition, both teams have had a similar trajectory since the pandemic. Oregon and USC both had impressive 2021 tournament runs as lower seeds. In fact, they actually met in the Sweet 16, where USC eventually prevailed. After successful 2021 seasons, both Oregon and USC took steps back in 2022, where the Ducks could not make the dance, and the Trojans lost in the first round to the pillar of perfection in the University of Miami. As if to complete the cycle, both teams are back to top form in 2023, and have aspirations beyond the first round of the tournament. Oregon is ranked in the preseason top 25 AP poll, and USC received votes as well. These two teams will most likely be fighting to see who sits next to Arizona and UCLA on the podium for the Pac-12, and play each other just once on Thursday, February 9th. Oregon has one of the most challenging non-conference portions of a schedule across the country, so it would not be surprising if USC pulls ahead in the race at first, only to be caught later in the season as conference play begins.
2) Washington State and Stanford look to end their Tournament Droughts
Washington State has not made the tournament since 2008, the second longest stretch for a Power 5 team only to DePaul. Similarly, Stanford has made just one NCAA tournament, since 2008 (where they made a Sweet Sixteen run in 2014), and have made none under their current coach Jerod Haase. Both the Wildcats and Cardinal are looking to end this drought, and may have the group needed to get it done in 2023. Kyle Smith of Washington State has coached the program well in the last few years, and just got the recent roster addition of Jusin Powell off of the transfer portal. Stanford still has potential future NBA player Harrison Ingram, and curiously have two separate star players with the last name Jones (returning player Spencer Jones and Davidson transfer Michael Jones). Both of these teams are by no means the top of the Pac-12, but their hunger towards success should leave fanbases of these teams more excited than they have been in at least the past few seasons.
1) Is the Pac-12 the most Contested Championship Race?
Analysts and statistics both agree that UCLA and Arizona are the top teams in the Pac-12, and both of them have a case to make it to the top. UCLA is returning a lot of great talent, most notably cornerstone of their former Final Four Jaime Jaquez, and sensational point guard Tyger Campbell. UCLA also nabbed the Pac-12 rookie of the year in Amari Bailey, who was a top 10 prospect in the class of 2022. Meanwhile, Arizona is losing their top scorers from their incredible team last year, but Azuolas Tubelis should progress naturally into the role of leading the Wildcats. While Mick Cronin has been sensational throughout his first few seasons with the Bruins, Tommy Lloyd brought an unranked Arizona team to a 1 seed in his first season with the Wildcats, earning AP coach of the year honors. Across both the player and coach metrics, these two teams track as the top Pac-12 contenders. While many herald UCLA and USC as the rivalry, UCLA vs Arizona will be an incredibly important game to watch on January 21st and March 4th.
Finally, From Downtown has preseason rankings for Big 12, based on analytics, empirical data, and a good old bit of personal bias.
Arizona (AP Poll 17, KenPom 10)
Fade the AP Poll and trust in KenPom statistics here. The single most important factor into this team is Tommy Lloyd. The Arizona coach went 30-3 in his first year and won Coach of the Year. For such a revolutionary first year, one cannot help but expect Arizona to become a college basketball staple in the years to come. Kerr Kriisa and Azuolas Tubelis returning should keep this team strong, and Courtney Ramey departed from a crowded Texas squad to bolster the Wildcats. Arizona is an incredibly efficient team on the offensive side of the ball, and they will play the season at the 9th fastest pace in D1 basketball per KenPom. However, defensive efficiency is a question mark when compared to teams around the league, and could serve to curtail Arizona’s postseason hopes. Nonetheless, expect Lloyd to coach another great squad here, and for the Wildcats to push for a second straight Pac-12 title!
2. UCLA (AP Poll 8, KenPom 11)
While Tommy Lloyd won coach of the year in year 1 at Arizona, one cannot help but also commend Mick Cronin for his incredible work at UCLA thus far. UCLA is one of a short list teams from last season to be retaining a large portion of their strong roster from 2022. Jaime Jaquez, Tyger Campbell, and Amari Bailey make a strong core that will be surrounded by a swathe of roleplayers. The list of strong players on this team is nearly unmatched. In addition to the aforementioned players, UCLA landed strong recruits Adem Bona and Dylan Andrews from the freshman class, and Jaylen Clark, David Singleton, Kenneth Nwuba, Will McClendon, and Mac Etienne will all be able to make an impact on the court. Cronin will have no shortage of ample players to use on the court as he sees fit, and UCLA should expect another strong season. If all goes well, Cronin can aim for his third consecutive Sweet Sixteen with the Bruins!
3. Oregon (AP Poll 21, KenPom 29)
Dana Altman had a rare off year in 2022, ending at a strangely low rank 82 in KenPom. He should have the squad to get the Ducks back to the dance in 2023, but a few question marks prevent Oregon from being higher on the list. The size of this team is simply enormous. Five star freshman Kel’el Ware and veteran player N’Faly Dante form a 7 foot core that will dominate the rest of the Pac-12 that cannot match up to their size. As if that were not enough, the Pac-12 team has yet another 7 footer in Nathan Bittle. The three of them should allow the Ducks to be a menace in the paint, but KenPom has this team significantly overrated. The defensive side of the court will present some issues for this team, but expect Altman to return to form in 2023.
4. USC (AP Poll N/A, KenPom 36)
The Trojans made it to the tournament last year, but this was nonetheless a step back from the Evan Mobley team in 2021. USC once again is ranked significantly below their historic rival, UCLA, and their new, functional rival in Oregon. Also, their big name heading into the season, Vince Iwuchukwu, is out indefinitely due to a heart injury. However, the Trojans still have plenty to be excited about for the season. Their two most important players are named Boogie Ellis and Kijani Wright. Ellis famously dropped a monstrous 27 pointer in an effort against UCLA in the Pac-12 tournament. Kijani Wright is a 6 foot 9 power forward, and one of the most underrated recruits in the 2022 class according to From Downtown. The Trojans might be a bit overrated at KenPom this year, but Andy Enfield has demonstrated his consistency with multiple top half Pac-12 finishes in a row. Expect the Trojans to comfortably make the tournament nonetheless.
5. Washington State (AP Poll N/A, KenPom 71)
Washington State has experienced new life for one of the most unsuccessful basketball programs of the 21st century. For the first time in a while, Washington State has tournament aspirations. It can get there on the back of Jusin Powell, who played at both Auburn and Tennessee. Washington State is also bringing back five players who had a significant role on their previous team that gave Wildcats fans hope. However, the story here is absolutely head coach Kyle Smith. Smith has been proving his mettle as a coach, and in a league where a lot of coaches have not been living up to expectations, a team with a coach above the Pac-12 average could be a great boon for this team. KenPom does not like this team, giving it an offensive metric rating outside of the top 100. This seems to come from Smith’s coaching style, as the Wildcats’ defense has been ranked significantly better than their offense in each of the last three seasons. With that being said, Smith has coached 2 straight seasons with a top 30 defense, and as the old adage goes; “defense wins championships.” Smith unfortunately has to compete with other top coaches, with the breakout stars of Tommy Lloyd and Mick Cronin combined with the consistent old guard of Dana Altman and Andy Enfield. However, we are seeing a head coach turn a formerly hopeless program around, and that is cause for excitement. The upward trajectory for the Wildcats under Smith is clearly visible in the past 3 seasons, and as he enters year 4, expect Washington State to continue to trend towards even greater heights.
6. Stanford (AP Poll N/A, KenPom 58)
Jerod Haase is on the hot seat, but this is the best Stanford team in a while. The main star on the team is Harrison Ingram, a player with real NBA aspirations. As mentioned before, Ingram is combined with two separate Jones players in Spencer Jones and Michael Jones (no relation). The Cardinal are being ranked highly by analysts around the league, but expect to fade them a bit compared to the analysts this season. When comparing their metrics with other teams in the league, Stanford has the 7th best defense and the 6th best offense. While a consistent, balanced team, Stanford lacks depth, size, and strong coaching ability. The question with the Cardinal is how much can Haase and the players support obvious star Harrison Ingram. If Ingram continues to impress, expect this team to have a shot at the NCAA tournament, but not much more.
7. Arizona State (AP Poll N/A, KenPom 75)
Arizona State had one of the most lopsided teams by KenPom standards in 2022, with an impressive top 30 defense, but an abysmal offense ranked outside of the top 200. In order to have any hopes of making the NCAA tournament, the Sun Devils will need to improve on the offensive side of the game. Michigan transfer Frankie Collins should be able to help on this side of the ball. Marcus Bagley will start the season in good health, and if he stays healthy, he could pair with Collins to give the team top 5 upside in the Pac-12. However, the true answer to cure this team’s woes lies in coach Bobby Hurley scheming a more efficient gameplan. Hurley has coached disappointing season after disappointing season for the Sun Devils, including 4 straight losses against rival Arizona. However, with his coaching job on the line, we could see improvements to his game planning with the sense of urgency being created by his job insecurity. Look for the Sun Devils to either outperform or underperform, as it is unlikely Hurley will try to simply match expectations.
8. Colorado (AP Poll N/A, KenPom 61)
It is no secret that Tad Boyle has been one of if not the single most successful coach for a Colorado program that has not made the Sweet Sixteen since before the moon landing. However, he has yet to have the single season needed to break that curse. It turns out that this year is likely not the year the Buffaloes will make the Sweet Sixteen - as they are projected for their first season under 20 wins in 4 years at KenPom - but there is still plenty of good here. Colorado curiously has 2 separate Ivy League transfer players, as Ethan Wright and Jalen Gabbidon both left the Ivies to head to the Power 5. They should mesh well with last year’s strong freshman K.J. Simpson. However, in a league with so much starpower, coach’s hunger, and drive to succeed, a consistent team without hope of reaching new heights may get cast to the side. Expect the Buffaloes to finish around .500 in the Pac-12.
9. California (AP Poll N/A, KenPom 146)
As described before, From Downtown has Cal ranked significantly higher than both other analysts and KenPom statistics. The trio of Devin Askew, Dajuan Harris and Grant Newell mix together to bring a team that has certain intangible qualities. Askew’s mentality should completely shift. He is the ace on this team, and the Golden Bears need him to step up and into that role. This is a shift from his former role on a crowded Longhorns team, where he was competing for minutes and comparing himself with teammates. Mark Fox also could be in hot water with his job if he does not turn things around soon, but he has a competent squad that could help him achieve great things in 2023. Cal matches up well in a league with a lot of top defenses, as their similarly defense-first orientation should keep them competitive with some other lackluster offenses. Although, Cal has an outrageously bad offensive metric rating outside the top 200. Keep in mind that Cal’s offense is being underrated, but it nonetheless does not raise any eyebrows when compared to Arizona, UCLA, or Oregon. Golden Bears fans should hope to see one of Fox’s more important and more exciting seasons, but should not get their hopes up for anything more than a surprise NIT appearance.
10. Washington (AP Poll N/A, KenPom 113)
Washington gained Franck Kepnang from Oregon this year to add to a squad that went above .500 in the Pac-12 last year. However, this is yet another Pac-12 team with questions on the offensive side of the ball. Keion Brooks Jr. is the only returning double digit averager from last season, and the Huskies lost their star player in Terrell Brown. Mike Hopkins gave Huskies fans hope when he won 2 straight Pac-12 Coach of the Year honors, but has remained milquetoast ever since then. Analysts are ranking this team significantly higher than KenPom, which in this instance is not a good sign. Expect the Huskies to be formidable on defense, but to struggle in conference play against some of the best defenses at the collegiate level.
11. Utah (AP Poll N/A, KenPom 72)
Utah is ranked very highly by KenPom, but From Downtown is going to back the analyst position on the Utes and say to fade them in 2023. Utah is fresh off of a 4-16 season in the Pac-12, including a monstrously inefficient 189th defensive rating at the end of the season. Unfortunately for head coach Craig Smith, the other rookie head coach won Coach of the Year honors, so he really did not measure up to his competition. Craig Smith is not the problem with this team, and as he continues to bring in recruits, Utah can be expected to return to their favorable position in the upper echelon of the Pac-12 (especially since this will likely coincide with UCLA and USC departing from the league). However, Utah is returning 5 significant players from a team that underperformed, seemingly not changing much with the roster. No notable freshman joins this team either, and yet KenPom has them making the jump from last season. Until Smith can get his hands on some talent, expect the Utes to once again finish among the bottom teams in the Pac-12.
12. Oregon State (AP Poll N/A, KenPom 228)
Oregon State’s tournament run in 2021 is among the most memorable from that season, and it garnered Wayne Tinkle a hefty contract extension. However, the Beavers steeply regressed in 2022, and finished dead last in the Pac-12. Wayne Tinkle does not bring in a great squad here, and the atmosphere with the Beavers is that this is once again a rebuilding year for Tinkle to begin building another team to make another deep NCAA tournament run. Until then, expect Tinkle to continue trying to win games, but for his skill as a coach as well as the skills of other players to simply outmatch the Beavers in 2023.
The Pac-12 is rated as the weakest Power 5 conference, but it also could be the most intriguing. Arizona and UCLA are both realistic Final Four teams, and Oregon, USC, Washington State, Stanford, and Arizona State could all feasibly make the tournament this year. However, there is no way to avoid disappointment, and some of these programs will leave the season with a sour taste in their mouths. In the meantime, expect plenty of great, gritty, and close games to watch as the season tips off in early November.
As the days count down before the season begins, From Downtown is here to bring previews of each major conference in the sport. For true fans of college basketball, From Downtown will be here to provide the latest and greatest in articles and podcasts. Keep reading to catch the last major conference preview on the Big 12, or stay tuned for the Big Ten preview coming Wednesday!
