Big Ten Breakdown
The Big Ten sent an astounding 9 teams to the postseason dance last year, but once again failed to produce a Final Four team. Considering the strength of programs like last year’s Purdue, Illinois, and Wisconsin as well as the “hot” teams Iowa and Indiana, the fact that only 2 teams managed to make the second weekend is both shocking and disappointing. Consider 2021, where 1st seed Illinois, 2nd seed Ohio State, and 4th seed Purdue were all stunned in first weekend upsets, and it seems as though power in the Big Ten is waning. Of course, this will inevitably be alleviated when powerhouses UCLA and USC join the league, but in the interim, this league is struggling to find an identity. With that being said, the league is nonetheless very compelling, and they absolutely have the chance to reverse the narrative in the 2023 season, and From Downtown is here to bring the top 5 storylines heading in!
5) Great Offenses, Bad Defenses
This very peculiar statistic bodes very well for college hoops fans, as this means games are sure to be high scoring and exciting. The Big Ten has ⅕ of the top 30 offenses at KenPom with 6 of them, but just 3 top 30 defenses. Notably, this means that teams with strong defenses may find success. Indiana, Illinois, and Rutgers are notable for having stronger defenses than they do offenses per KenPom. Additionally, Penn State has one of the slowest tempos in the entire sport, and should look to play a very physical, gritty basketball. Additionally, Iowa boasts a top 5 offense in basketball, but their defense is ranked quite poorly at 76th. Expect the Hawkeyes to be a boom or bust team alongside Purdue, Michigan, and Ohio State. The key to emerging as the best team in the Big Ten will be achieving a balanced style of play, and a team will need to mitigate their defense to stand a chance against some fierce offenses.
4) Michigan State Approaches the End of an Era
Tom Izzo - one of the greatest coaches in college basketball history - was granted a contract extension in August of this year (to no one’s surprise). The contract will likely take him through retirement. Izzo has an astonishing 8 Final Four appearances in his career as the leader of the Spartans, but he has only won the tournament a single time. As Izzo attempts to catch his white whale, the clock is ticking. This year’s group has promise, but is one of the less talented groups in the conference. Simply put: national champion aspirations are unlikely. Expect Izzo to nonetheless coach this team to greatness. Izzo is clearly the best coach in the Big Ten, and that is saying a lot considering the strength of Matt Painter, Juwan Howard, and Brad Underwood. Michigan State projects comfortably into the tournament, but Spartans fans should look towards the future. Izzo has the chance to cement his legacy as an all-timer in the next few years, so be on the lookout for strong recruits to come through East Lansing as the coming weeks unfold.
3) Will the Big Ten Replicate 9 Bids In 2023?
Last year, the Big Ten experienced one of the most chaotic seasons in recent memory. Wisconsin and Illinois split the regular season title, but Iowa won the tournament. Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan, Indiana, Rutgers, and Michigan State all made the tournament as well. Considering the Big Ten pecking order seems even more uncertain this season, replicating 9 tournament bids is a very possible outcome. This begs the question: which 9 teams from this conference have a chance to make the dance? Although this league is uncertain, the consensus is that 7 teams - Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Purdue (more on them later) - will all comfortably make the tournament bar any significant underperformance. As for the other 2 bids, there seems to be a race between a few hungry teams. Wisconsin and Rutgers are entering the season seeking to further continue their strength from last season. Meanwhile, Penn State and Minnesota aspire to make the tournament in each of their respective coaches’ second year at the helm. Northwestern’s Chris Collins has questions about his job security, but his bunch has the chance to make the tournament (a tournament appearance would likely save his career). Finally, Kevin Willard took over for the Terrapins this season, and while Maryland will experience some growing pains this season, KenPom projects them as a top 60 team. Unfortunately, Nebraska seems lacking in both talent and direction under Fred Hoiberg in his 4th year, but the rest of these teams all have a case for a postseason push. Expect 1-2 of these teams to make the tournament, but which teams will make it is as good as anyone’s guess.
2) The Hoosiers Look Hot
Mike Woodson may not have been excellent at the NBA level, but in his first year with the Hoosiers, he managed to get them to a tournament win for the first time in 6 years! Woodson also retained most of his talent from last year. Most notably, Trayce Jackson-Davis is returning. The player is a contender for the best player in college hoops, and fellow Hoosiers Xavier Johnson and Race Thompson return as well. More importantly, Woodson landed the best freshman entering the Big Ten in Jalen Hood-Schifino. Indiana’s legacy as one of the best college basketball programs of all time largely stems from Bob Knight. Woodson has the Herculean task of matching Knight’s legacy, and he has big expectations heading into year 2 at his position. Fortunately, his strong team on paper combined with the tumultuous state of the Big Ten makes him the consensus favorite entering the season. Expect the most exciting Hoosiers team in the last decade!
The Big Ten Title is Anyone’s Game
While Indiana may be the betting favorite, there is a lot to consider when picking a preseason team to win the league. Indiana is displaying a predominantly returning cast from a team that finished 9th in the Big Ten last season. While Hood-Schifino will be fantastic, it can intuitively seem unrealistic that the addition of a mere 1 player can blast Indiana up 8 spots in the standings. Additionally, the fact that Indiana - the projected winner of the Big Ten by both analysts and KenPom - ranks outside of the top 10 in both of those metrics indicates a lack of confidence in one specific team in the conference. Across the conference, many teams look very strong. Purdue returns Zach Edey and Michigan returns Hunter Dickinson, and both were fantastic last season. Ohio State and Illinois have competent rosters and great freshmen classes, and Izzo’s Spartans can never be counted out. Considering Iowa caught fire out of nowhere last season, it seems truly tough to predict which team will come out on top. While From Downtown has very comprehensive rankings, at the end of the day, these are merely predictions. The good news is that Big Ten basketball should be the most entertaining it has been in years. All of these teams are vying for the top spot, and that is a feat no other Power 5 conference can boast (for reference: the SEC race is between 3-4 teams, the Big East race is between 3, the previously mentioned Big 12 and Pac-12 have 2 teams competing for the top spot, and the ACC has a clear favorite). For fans of a Big Ten team, get excited for what is shaping up to be one of the most memorable seasons of college basketball this conference has ever experienced!
Indiana
The Hoosiers at the top of the Big Ten rankings should be a breath of fresh air for fans of the Blue Blood program. Indiana returns their three best players and adds the best freshman entering the Big Ten. Woodson exceeded expectations in his first year, and has a history at the professional level that should translate well into sustained college success. Expect Trayce Jackson-Davis, Xavier Johnson, Race Thompson, and Jalen Hood-Schifino to lead a great Indiana team. Indiana is also perfectly positioned for success in the Big Ten based off of their team strength. They have the best defense in the Big Ten by a comfortable margin, and while their offense is not rated the highest in the league, they are absolutely strong on that side of the court. While this conference truly is up for grabs, Indiana is the safest pick to win it all.
Purdue
From Downtown ranks Purdue as one of the most underrated teams heading into the 22-23 season. The reason for this boils down to two important names: Zach Edey and Matt Painter. Zach Edey is the tallest player in Big Ten basketball history. This alone makes him a force to be reckoned with on the court. However, he proved last season that he has the technique to back up his raw athleticism. Purdue does not return famous name misspeller Jaden Ivey, but there will now be more room for Edey to make an impact on the court (there are some concerns about his longevity and stamina, which will be important to monitor throughout the season). More importantly, the Boilermakers return Matt Painter. If it were not for Tom Izzo, Matt Painter would be the best coach in Big Ten basketball by a significant margin. A master of consistency, Painter has not missed the NCAA tournament since 2014. Painter has the talent required to be able to outcoach any team in the conference, and power forward Mason Gillis should pair well with Edey to give the Boilermakers a dominant backcourt heading into the season.
Illinois
Brad Underwood has done considerable work for the Illini through his tenure. Before he took over, Illinois had missed every NCAA tournament since 2013. He projects to comfortably make his third tournament in a row. Kofi Cockburn and Ayo Dosunmu were likely the two strongest players that played for Illinois since the immortal 2005 team, and replacing them will be very difficult. Expect much of the leg work on this team to come from freshman Skyy Clark. Generally, preseason reports can be taken with a grain of salt. However, in a situation where, across multiple months, all of the reports coming out of practice are beating the drum that a specific player is “gonna be good,” that has merit. Skyy Clark is “gonna be good.” Notably, Matthew Mayer transfers in as a member of the championship Baylor team. Illinois has noticeably been allergic to the Sweet Sixteen in recent years, and they have actually fallen to 2 straight NCAA tournament upsets in 2021 and 2022 (Houston, despite being the lower seed, was the betting favorite in their match against Illinois). Perhaps this will be Underwood’s team to break the curse.
Michigan State
As mentioned earlier, the Spartans should not worry about missing the tournament. No sane person should rank a Tom Izzo team outside of the top 5 in the Big Ten. Malik Hall shot north of 40% from the 3-point range, which is a great addition to have. Guards A.J. Hoggard and Tyson Walker are great opportunists on the field, and each averaged more than 4 assists last season while playing on limited minutes. Michigan State unfortunately has arguably the single toughest non-conference schedule in the country, as they have to play a host of teams ranked much more highly than them to start the season. Michigan State also has no breakout player, which could pose an issue to a league writhe with talent. However, expect a young group of hungry, devoted players with Izzo’s mind behind them to give lots of teams trouble in this season. Michigan State should project comfortably into the tournament.
Ohio State
Ohio State lost E.J. Liddell, which is bad for both the spectators and team itself. While Ohio State hopes to land LeBron James Jr. as a recruit for the 23-24 season, this interim year might be a bit of a decline for Chris Holtmann’s squad. However, the future is absolutely bright for this team. Ohio State brought in the 8th best recruiting class for the season. The names to know here are Roddy Gayle Jr., Bruce Thornton, Felix Okpara, and Brice Sensebaugh. None of these players project to be “One and Done” players. Should Ohio State land Bronny James, the Buckeyes will have an established supporting cast to make the 23-24 season incredibly exciting. Holtmann is a good coach, but he is surrounded by incredible coaches throughout the league. Ohio State should make the NCAA tournament dance - they have a great floor with some established transfers in addition to their freshman class - but their ceiling is lower than a lot of Big Ten teams entering the season.
Michigan
The illustrious University of Michigan is very alluring to all students, so much so that Princeton transfer Jaelin Llewellyn decided to try his luck outside of the Ivies. In addition to him, head coach Juwan Howard brings back Hunter Dickinson, who has been incredible for the Wolverines so far. Jett Howard - Juwan Howard’s son - joins fellow freshman Tarris Reed as the freshman headliners, but the former player presents a significant problem for the Wolverines. We have seen firsthand how Juwan Howard can let his emotions get the better of him on the court, as he was suspended after an altercation with Wisconsin coaches Greg Gard and Joe Krabbenhoft. Considering his son is joining a team already crowded with big personalities, From Downtown predicts that there will be too many cooks in the kitchen for Michigan. They project reasonably well in KenPom, but they are notable for having a defense outside of the top 50. How well this team will do depends on how quickly the team can get under Howard’s wing. He was AP’s Coach of the Year in 2021 for a reason, and he brought an underrated Michigan team to the Sweet Sixteen last year with two strong upsets. However, the players here may have trouble respecting each other as well as his authority, and Howard’s incident becoming a repeated occurrence may mar the team’s reputation as well. This team will likely improve as the season progresses, but expect a lot of growing pains for the Wolverines as Howard juggles parenting with coaching at the season’s start.
Iowa
At the end of last year, the Iowa Hawkeyes caught fire. They steamrolled the Big Ten tournament - including an absolute dismantling of Northwestern’s in a 112 point effort - before getting curbed by a similarly piping Richmond team. That Iowa team loses Keegan Murray to the Sacramento Kings, but his twin brother Kris still remains at the school. Head coach Fran McCaffery has been pretty strong at his position, but not exceptional like Izzo, Painter, Howard, or Underwood. Also, this team has a gross inconsistency that needs to be addressed. According to KenPom, Iowa is the 2nd most offense-dependent team in the country, ranked only behind Gonzaga. The defense on this team is not strong, and this plagued last year’s team as well (the Hawkeyes let up 38 points to Richmond in the 2nd half). McCaffery will have his work cut out for him, but expect Iowa to nonetheless make waves in a league categorized by offenses rather than defenses (Iowa has the highest ranked offense in the league at KenPom).
Rutgers
Clifford Omoruyi. An absolute stud. The Scarlet Knights managed to keep Omoruyi on board, and he was a massive part of the team’s ability to make it to the dance in 2022. Paul Mulcahy also returns, but the Scarlet Knights lost NBA superstar Ron Harper’s son at the end of the season. The Scarlet Knights are well positioned within the league due to their strength on defense. They are the second-highest rated defense in the league, which will allow them to go toe-to-toe with the better offenses in the Big Ten. However, while Steve Pikiell is easily the best Rutgers head coach in the 21st century, he tends to struggle against some of the better schemers across the league. Nonetheless, when Indiana played against Rutgers last season, Omoruyi managed to shut down Jackson-Davis on a few possessions. This team has little hope besides a surprise berth in the NCAA tournament, but expect them to crush the dreams of many other teams on the way.
Penn State
Penn State is categorized by their desire to slow the pace of the game down to a crawl. Penn State has the 358th fastest tempo in D-1 college basketball. For reference, there are 363 teams in D-1 college basketball, meaning they have the 6th slowest tempo. This is not necessarily a bad thing; certain teams prefer to play at a more controlled pace. For 2nd year coach Micah Shrewsberry, this seemed to work, as Penn State exceeded expectations and wowed Ohio State in the conference tournament. They bring back Jalen Pickett and Seth Lundy, who were core pieces of the team last year. Andrew Funk out of Bucknell joined the Nittany Lions as well, which should serve to be a crucial addition to a potent scoring team. The problem with the Nittany Lions will be their matchup compared to the Big Ten. Simply put, a majority of the Big Ten teams are positioned well to exploit Penn State’s lack of size. Nonetheless, Penn State has a very easy non-conference schedule, so expect the Nittany Lions to be a sleeper tournament team as the season progresses.
Wisconsin
This team is being vehemently overrated, and KenPom ranks them much lower than many of the top analysts. The headliner here is Tyler Wahl, who managed to be very impressive despite having to compete for the spotlight with the sensational Johnny Davis and Brad Davison. Wahl should improve this year, but the talent surrounding him is quite underwhelming. The only notable player entering this mix is Kamari McGee, who played for the Green Bay Phoenix last season. McGee, while alright, was a 3 star transfer in the portal, and is not nearly enough to replace Johnny Davis. Considering that the expectation is for Wisconsin to maintain top form despite losing their top 2 players and replacing them with next to nothing, it makes sense that the Badgers are being grossly overrated. Nonetheless, Greg Gard is a strong coach, and Wisconsin absolutely has the potential to make some waves if Wahl develops into the next superstar Badger.
Northwestern
Northwestern fans have nothing but positive things to say about Chris Collins, but the fact of the matter is that he has not lived up to expectations post-NCAA tournament run. Unfortunately, this means Collins is backed up against the wall. A second NCAA tournament appearance or even a strong NIT showing may save his career, but the talent to get him there may be tight. Boo Buie is the standout for the Wildcats, as he averaged 14 points and 4 assists last year. If Buie can take the jump, then UTEP transfer Tydus Verhoeven can provide some much needed size for the otherwise tiny team. Northwestern ranks rather poorly in offense, but they may be able to get away with a subpar offense due to the league being relatively weak in defense when compared to other Power 5 conferences. Northwestern may have just enough firepower to get Collins the contract extension he desires, and his “put up or shut up” situation may make him a little bit more fired up as well. There will be a pretty good indication of Northwestern’s trajectory by February, but the hope is that Chris Collins - the only Northwestern coach to bring the Wildcats to the tournament - manages to stay afloat in a challenging league.
Maryland
Kevin Willard is taking over for the Terrapins, but he will unfortunately have low expectations in year 1. Maryland has just 1 freshman entering the team this year. Not only was freshman Noah Batchelor not recruited by Kevin Willard, but he was not ranked in the top 200 recruits. Maryland did manage to land Donald Carey from Georgetown and Jahmir Young from Charlotte in the transfer portal, but the veteran players on this roster underperformed last season for a reason. Willard proved his mettle as a head coach with the Pirates at Seton Hall, but he is not yet an eyebrow raiser like some other Big Ten coaches. Fade the Terrapins a bit this year compared to KenPom’s rankings, as they will be experiencing coaching turmoil and are outclassed talent-wise by many other teams in the league.
Minnesota
Ben Johnson outperformed in his first season, but that is moreso an indication of the barren expectations rather than any significant success from the Golden Gophers. Minnesota finished last in the Big Ten and lost in the first round of the conference tournament. Fortunately for Minnesota fans, Johnson seems to be showing promise as a coach. Dawson Garcia was a 4 star transfer out of the portal, and Arizona native and freshman Josh Ola-Joseph seems to be a lot better than his initial ranking indicated. The Gophers should rule out the NCAA tournament for this year, and focus on building a foundation for future success.
Nebraska
Fred Hoiberg nearly lost his job after yet another bad Nebraska season. Simply put, Hoiberg has yet to demonstrate the skill required to coach at this level, and the Cornhuskers are suffering as a result. Emmanuel Bandoumel was a relatively strong member of an SMU team that nearly made the tournament last year, and Juwan Gary out of Alabama is strong as well. Nonetheless, this team is simply outclassed on both the coaching and talent front by nearly every team in the conference. To make matters worse, Nebraska has a strangely tough non conference schedule considering the strength of their team, and they have to play teams such as St. John’s, Oklahoma, Creighton, and Kansas State. Hoiberg will likely get the boot in a few years, so Nebraska fans should instead look to the distant future for significant college basketball success.
As the days count down before the season begins, From Downtown is here to bring previews of each major conference in the sport. For true fans of college basketball, From Downtown will be here to provide the latest and greatest in articles and podcasts. Be sure to catch the ACC preview coming out this Sunday, the Big East preview coming out next Wednesday, or the SEC preview in a week and a half! More news on the subsequent articles coming soon!
